Local straw poll mirrors UK national predictions – with not much enthusiasm over General Election

Our entirely unscientific snap straw poll results are in – possibly showing a lack of interest in the election.

Well over a thousand results were lodged in our now traditional snap straw poll that we conducted yesterday (Tuesday 18 June).

Of course polls such of these are lacking the segmentation and pre-qualification elements of ‘proper’ polls so treat it accordingly.

The audience in theory was the self selecting readership relevant to the Wrexham area.

Perhaps reflecting the new constituency boundaries we had the highest (80%) percentage of people saying they are in ‘Wrexham’ rather than the Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr constituency, than previous similar polls.

The above image shows the Wrexham poll results as a percentage of the straw poll.

Wrexham voted in its first Conservative MP in 2019. However the unscientific results indicate that it could return back to Labour in the early hours of July 5. Similar to UK national (proper) polling which shows the Conservatives and Reform UK level, our straw poll indicates it could also be neck and neck for second place between the two parties here.

Back in the 2015 General Election Labour (Ian Lucas) beat the Conservatives (Andrew Atkinson) by 1,831 votes – with the then UKIP Party scoring just over 5,000 votes.

UKIP’s then leader Nigel Farage is now the Leader of Reform. Last night IPSOS published their first MRP model of the forthcoming election, including projecting Wrexham as having 16% Reform vote share.

The unscientific straw poll points to a possibly tighter fight in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, this time with a cumulative column chart not percentages, although with much less responses than Wrexham.

Results of our straw poll for Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

However with the change in boundaries – particularly for Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr ward encompasses a large of Powys and West Wales – it is hard to compare to historic polls.

We also asked if people’s vote had changed since the last time you voted – with around 75% of those taking part answering.

It shows more than half of voters in 2019 are planning on voting differently in the July 4 election.

A small percentage were also unable to vote five years but are planning to so in just over two weeks time.

The General Election campaign so far has been fairly muted compared to 2017/2019 – with this being the first since 2015 where there has been a five year period between elections.

Not very many of those (roughly half) who scored how excited they were about the election showed much enthusiasm – with the lowest rating being the main score.

We asked how excited they were, from 1 not being very excited, to 10 to being very excited – possibly indicating a disillusionment with politics and politicians in general.

There could be a rise in anticipation levels as it appears there has been a flurry of election leaflets from different candidates either being posted through doors or handed via door knocking in recent days.

For those saying they were not going to vote we enquired to why, with a selection of the often frank comments shared by readers below – unedited:

• loada shit
• Trust issues
• I feel discriminated against having to prove who I am at the polling station. Post can get intercepted. The internet is one of the most at risk methods, yet going face to face I have to show identification.
• Full of promises never delivered
• Nobody represents my values.
• Because they do not care about us. All politician’s are in it for themselves, local devolved national & international all the same, crap
• apathy
• because the fptp  (first-past-thepost) system is profoundly flawed
• Not one candidate worthy of my vote
• I do not fit into any of the current political parties
• All as rubbish as the next
• Never have and never will
• MPs are all the same and voting will make no difference
• All politicians never seem to answer for themselves and just follow the party line and never seem to offer what they are really thinking.

Back in 2019 we ran a similar poll which had the Wrexham race neck and neck – but the wrong way around, the straw polls were more accurate for PCC, Brexit and General and Senedd elections.

There are of course a range of ‘proper’ scientific polls with well tested methodology, the BBC are running a poll of poll tracking system.

The current General election 2024 poll tracker from the BBC is below, with the analysis: “Polls conducted over the last fortnight suggest support for Labour has dipped a bit but there’s not any good news for the Conservatives, writes BBC senior political analyst Peter Barnes.

“Labour are still on average around 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, but both parties have edged down since the election was called. Reform are still back in third place on average.”

A very recent YouGov Poll (below) said: “The latest YouGov voting intention survey, conducted 12-13 June, has Reform UK one point ahead of the Conservatives on 19% to 18%.

“While numerically ahead, it is worth keeping sight of the fact that these figures are well within the margin of error of one another – we will not be able to tell for some time whether Reform can sustain or improve their position relative to the Conservatives.

“Given these considerations, it may be more fair to say at this point in time – given the results of the last few polls – that Reform UK are neck and neck with the Conservatives.”

Of course polls are just that and can often be wrong – be it the proper ones above or our own quick straw poll – and what really matters is you casting your vote.

Learn more about your candidates and who is standing on : https://www.wrexham.com/general-election-2024

Key Dates:

• Deadline for applying for a proxy vote: 5pm, Wednesday 26 June
• Deadline for applying for a Voter Authority Certificate: 5pm Wednesday 26 June
• ELECTION DAY: 7am to 10pm, Thursday 4 July

The only poll that matters closes at 10pm on Thursday 4th July, and the result will be known a few hours later. Wrexham is counted in Wrexham, and due around 1-3am. Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is counted in Powys.

You can read the responses to the candidates across the two wards who have replied to our Q&A so far here.