Challenges facing the new First Minister Eluned Morgan: Health service, party conflict, and education
It has been an unusual eight months for the Welsh Government.
There have been three first ministers, a series of high profile resignations from cabinet and growing criticism of the Welsh Government’s handling of major issues including the NHS and the rollout – and imminent retreat – of the controversial 20mph speed limit.
Last week Baroness Eluned Morgan, who had served as the health secretary since 2021, was elected Wales’ third first minister this year.
She stood unopposed to take over the role from Vaughan Gething MS, who was forced to step down after just four months after mounting pressure from his own cabinet and opposition parties.
Speaking in the Senedd last week Baroness Morgan, who is Wales’ first female first minister, pledged to restore public trust in politics after a tumultuous six months for the Welsh Government.
In her inaugural speech, Baroness Morgan went onto say: “As I take up the mantle of leadership, I promise to honour their achievements and add my own distinctive contribution to this legacy, perhaps with a vibrant splash of colour—the grey suits are out.
“This is a historic day as a woman becomes the First Minister of Wales for the first time in our history.”
But with growing pressures in the health service, unusually public infighting within her own party, the rise of the Reform UK vote in Wales and poor education results in Wales, we take a look at some of the obstacles facing Baroness Morgan in between now and the 2026 Senedd election.
The health service
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the new first minister and her newly appointed government is the health service.
An estimated 611,500 individual patients were reported to be on an NHS treatment waiting list in June – the equivalent of one-in-four of the Welsh population.
The number of open patient pathways also continued to grow month on month, rising from just over 775,000 to just over 787,900 in May.
Whilst the number of patient pathways is not the same as the number of individual patients, this has also risen to the highest on record.
The number of patient pathways waiting longer than two years for treatment also rose to 22,500.
During Eluned Morgan’s time as health minister the NHS failed to meet its own target of eliminating two year waits in most specialities.
Of course north Wales has its own long-running issues with the health service.
Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board – which provides healthcare services to 700,000 people in north Wales – was put into special measures by the Welsh government in February 2023 due to “serious concerns” over its performance, leadership, and culture.
It is the second time that Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board has been in special measures, despite being removed in 2021.
In June 2015 former First Minister Mark Drakeford announced that the health board would be placed into special measures after “serious and outstanding concerns about the leadership, governance and progress.”
At the time Mark Drakeford MS was health minister – a role that he is returning to in the first minister’s new cabinet.
Ms Morgan faced fierce criticism over her handling of issues at Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board and her decision to place the health board into special measures for a second time in 2023.
It lead to 11 independent members of the health board resigning over a lack of “confidence in the Welsh Government’s grasp of the situation.”
Allegations were made that the health minister had told the independent board members that “they had 50 minutes to resign or she’d sack them, and in so doing bar them from other public appointments for two years.”
In a statement released at the time, the independent members said: “It seems that responsibility for organisational culture, service quality and reconfiguration governance, and operational delivery have been placed at our door without recognition of the limitation of our powers as Independent Members.
In March 2023 Baroness Morgan survived a vote of no confidence in the Senedd after being accused of failing to get to grips with the long-running health issues in north Wales.
With long waiting times and damaged reputation it is unclear on whether Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board will be removed from special measures before the next Senedd election in 18 months time.
Welsh Labour in-fighting
The last four months have been a turbulent time for Welsh Labour, a party which usually tries to present a united front.
The party has been accused of spending more time being focused on in-fighting and party conflict rather than the issues facing Wales.
It comes after Vaughan Gething MS was forced to resign from the role of first minister after just four months.
His decision came amid questions over his decision to accept a £200,000 campaign donation from a company whose owner had been convicted of environmental crimes.
Despite announcing an internal review of Labour’s election processes, including campaign finances, Mr Gething continued to face weekly challenge at First Minister’s Questions over accepting the money.
Criticism over his tenure grew after he continued to stay in the role despite losing a vote of no confidence in the Senedd.
However issues came to a head in July after a series of mass cabinet resignations – including Wrexham’s Lesley Griffiths MS – over Mr Gething’s sacking of Hannah Blythyn MS over alleged leaking of text messages.
Ms Blythyn was accused of leaking messages between cabinet secretaries – something which she has consistently denied.
However, Mr Gething pointed out that cabinet secretaries are responsible for the security of their own devices after releasing a detailed explanation on evidence around the sacking of Ms Blythyn indicating the apparent link to her device.
Speaking last month Mr Gething said: “Regardless of how the photograph came into the journalist’s possession, the image should not have been allowed to have been taken, leading as it did to the breakdown of trust for Ministers’ expectation of privacy for their discussions.”
That issue is still unresolved, and there is no clarity for the public if the minister did leak messages, if there is a third party intercepting Welsh Government communications or if there is a wider cultural issue on lapse data handling.
The evidence dump also showed how Gething suggested ‘…deleting the messages in this group. They can be captured in a Freedom of Information (request)’ – something Julie James MS who was Cabinet Secretary for Local Government appeared to back. Again, there is no clarity if this is wider practice to delete information so it is deliberately out of reach of FOI requests, and how that position would fit legally as well as morally with the ‘right of access’ principles – something that was codified following a manifesto commitment of the Labour Party in the 1997 General Election.
In her inaugural speech Baroness Morgan said that she would work to restore public trust in politics.
In appointing her new cabinet Mick Antoniw, Julie James, Lesley Griffiths nor Jeremy Miles – the four members who resigned from Mr Gething’s government – have not received ministerial roles.
Road building projects and 20mph
During his four months as first minister Vaughan Gething MS took a different approach to his predecessor Mark Drakeford MS on the decision to effectively halt all new major road building projects across Wales.
In April 2024 Ken Skates MS, cabinet secretary for the economy, transport and North Wales, told the Senedd that “we will continue to build new roads.”
Mr Skates also committed to a Wales-wide “listening exercise” over the controversial 20mph speed limit law.
The Welsh Government came under fire since the new default speed limit was introduced in September 2023, leading to signs being defaced and many thousands of people signing a petition calling for it to be scrapped.
In April Mr Skates said: “There is, I believe, a growing consensus in this debate that we can at least build on that 20mph is right around our schools, hospitals, nurseries.”
The outcome of the ‘listening exercise’ was expected to be released later this year, with the onus on decisions to revert some roads back to 30mph likely to made by local councils.
Mr Skates remains as cabinet secretary for the economy, transport and North Wales, and the new First Minister has indicated there is likely to be no change to that direction, “I’m very clear that around schools, hospitals, built up areas, playgrounds, it should be 20. I think there needs to be a conversation with the public about what’s appropriate.”
Education
According to the three-yearly Pisa (Programme for International Student Assessment) results, schools in Wales lag behind the rest of the UK.
Speaking at the time Andreas Schleicher, the OECD’s director for education said that Wales is more comparable to a country like Malta than top performing education systems around the world.
Wales scored 466 in maths, 473 in science and 466 in reading compared with OECD averages of 476, 485 and 476.
A decline in maths scores from 487 in 2018 to 466 is equivalent to more than a year’s learning, according to the OECD.
The Welsh Government also came under fire for controversial proposals to shorten the length school summer holidays.
Proposals suggested moving a week from the start of the summer break into the autumn break creating a two-week half term.
The Welsh Government argued that the move would help to improve the education experiences of young people – especially the most disadvantaged and align more effectively with how families live and work.
Despite the then Cabinet Secretary for Education Lynne Neagle confirming in June that the plans had been put on hold, the proposals had attracted widespread criticism from education unions in Wales and parents.
Speaking in June the Education Secretary said: “Opinion was hugely divided on this.
“To ensure we get this right, we need to continue listening to and engaging with schools, teachers, unions as well as children, young people and parents on how best we can implement any changes in the future.
“I am acutely aware we are asking a lot of teachers and schools.
“They are supporting our ambitious transformation of education in Wales and they need the time and the space to ensure these reforms deliver for children and young people.”
Plans to reform the school calendar will not take place in the current Senedd term.
Voting system changes and the vote shares of runners up
The next Welsh Parliament election in May 2026 will be the first to be held under a new voting system.
This will include an increase in the number of Senedd Members from 60 to 96 and the introduction of a proposed closed-list electoral system.
As reported on Wrexham.com by the ICNN Senedd Reporter this would see 32 constituencies used in the general election paired to create 16 for the 2026 Senedd poll, with each returning six members.
One of the more controversial changes is the introduction of a closed list system, where each party puts forward a list of their candidates for multi-member constituencies. Winning candidates are taken from the lists in order of their position, and seats are allocated proportionally using a formula. In a closed list system, parties put forward a fixed list in an order of their choosing. Voters don’t have a say in how the list is organised, and the voter simply votes for a party’s list. This is the system currently used for regional seats in the Senedd.
Welsh Labour has dominated the Senedd since devolution 25 years ago.
Despite this the party has failed to secure a full majority at the last two elections, forcing the Welsh Government to lean on the Welsh Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru for support in some areas.
The co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru, which the party ended in May this year, saw the introduction of universal free school meals for primary school pupils across Wales and an extended free childcare offer for thousands of families.
However the party ended the agreement amid questions of Vaughan Gething MS’s decision to sack Hannah Blythyn and his “failure to pay back the £200,000 donation to his leadership campaign from a company convicted of environmental offences.”
Despite a Labour government being elected in the UK, Welsh Labour insiders have hinted at concerns that voters could be frustrated over recent decision making and actions.
The party will also likely have to to contend with the new Reform UK vote – with vote share becoming more relevant as first past the post / additional member system moves to closed list proportional representation. In the General Election in July Reform UK received the third largest share of votes in Wales, finishing third in Wrexham and second in the neighbouring consistency of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr.
The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026, giving the new First Minister a large inbox to tackle in the meantime as well as reflect on the results of the recent Welsh Election Study survey – as below.
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